Evan Longoria starting season in AAA isn't so crazy

It's been almost three full days since E-Day or Monday when the Rays decided to send Evan Longoria to the minors to start the season. Since then Rays fans have spoken out on both sides. Those for and against the move have let their opinions be known, but is it really that big of an issue? Is this move so unprecedented? Not really. I know each player's promotion or lack there of is on a case by case basis, but really Evan's case isn't that far off the norm.

RJ Anderson of DRaysbay wrote an article yesterday about Jeff Niemann's minor league innings pitched compared to that of some current Rays, most namely James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine. Reading that made me think of how Evan Longoria's minor league time compares with other players. I looked at the crop of talented young 3B in the majors or about to be in the majors, a few established MLB stars who came up as 3B, and how the Rays have handled promotion of their own home grown talent. Here is the list:



I didn't do this to show a correlation between MiLB time and MLB success because as you can see Albert Pujols didn't need no stinkin AAA time. In fact, those three AAA games were the only MiLB games Pujols played over the A+ ball level, that's how good he is. I just wanted to see what other teams did with their stud 3B prospects and it seems that the Rays are pretty justified in sending Longoria down for a little more seasoning. Only Pujols, Gordon and Zimmerman shot to the MLB in less games and less AB's. While Longoria has more AAA time than Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Kouzmanoff and will pass Ryan Braun and David Wright, they still had more total games and AB's in the minors/college than Longoria.

I also wanted to track some of the Rays prized position player prospects rise through the minors. From the list only Rocco Baldelli had a quick stint in AAA with 23 games. Crawford, Delmon Young, Upton and Aubrey Huff all played at least 85 games in AAA. BJ played two + full seasons at AAA, but obviously for defensive reasons. Also every other Rays player on the list besides Baldelli had at least 200 ABs more than Longoria. Even if Longoria gets 100 more ABs he still will have the second fastest rise through the Rays system behind Rocco. So to say the Rays are being cheap and are holding Longoria down isn't really justified by this list. This doesn't mean that the Longoria move wasn't money motivated, but shows the Rays have a history of getting their players more time at the MiLB level before promoting them.

Longoria sent to Minors; Price out 6 weeks

We finally have the answer to the biggest question of spring training. Where will Evan Longoria start the season? The answer as many expected, is with the Durham Bulls. The Heater is reporting Longoria was reassigned to minor league camp after today's 13-4 victory over the Pirates. Longoria won't be going alone however, his best friend and future Rays stud, Reid Brignac, was also reassigned to minor league camp.

Longoria Quote:

"It's a tough thing to swallow; just go back down and keep doing what I'm doing," he said. "They didn't give me any timetable; it's really up to me."

Longoria answered a lot of questions with his play on the field this spring hitting .262 with 3HR, 10 RBI,10 BB and flashing the leather in the field, but it wasn't enough to convince the Rays to put him on the opening day roster. This move also will put a delay on any "service clock" and will aide in keeping Longoria in a Rays uniform longer. While most Rays fans will see this move and scream "CHEAP!", baseball is a business and Sternberg and Co. have been playing the game smart. With a rotation featuring Jason Hammel and Edwin Jackson, the Rays are not contending for a playoff spot this season. There is no reason to trade a quarter of a season in 2008 for a full season in 2014. Some will bring up the argument that if the Brewers had Ryan Braun for a full season they might have made the playoffs. That argument isn't valid here. The Brewers had much more talent in their rotation and Scott Kazmir is more likely to keep the Rays out of contention than Longoria at this point.

It's almost a given that Longoria will be with the team by Memorial Day and until then we get to see Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman at the hot corner.

UPDATE: In other news 1st overall pick David Price will miss at least 6 weeks with a left elbow strain, according to sptimes.com. Price missed some time early this spring with arm stiffness and took himself out of a minor league game on Thursday after some discomfort.

"The good news is that obviously it's nothing significant,'' executive VP Andrew Friedman said. "We had that sense pretty soon after it happened but it's always good to get confirmation. Hearing the report the biggest delay is just going to be in terms of building him back up not necessarily getting him healthy.''

Price is expected to hang around St. Petersburg and participate in extended ST before reporting to Vero Beach some time after Mid May.

Longoria homers again, but Rays lose 4-2; Kazmir speaks about injury

Another quick recap for me today. The Rays are playing another home and home series with the Phillies today and tomorrow. Today the Rays dropped the first game to the Phillies in Clearwater 4-2. Evan "Encore" Longoria hit another home run today. That gives "The Natural" a team leading three on the spring. While it still looks like he's Durham bound he isn't going quietly. Other than Longoria's blast the Rays managed only two other hits, one by Reid Brignac and one by Dioner Navarro.


On the mound, Matt Garza had a so-so outing. He went six innings giving up four runs(three earned) and walked three. J.P. Howell was perfect in his only inning. The story on the mound today was the Phillies Cole Hamels. Hamels went six innings giving up one run on two hits and had seven K's.

The same two teams play tomorrow at Al Lang Field. Edwin Jackson gets the start for the Rays followed by: Scott Munter, Scott Dohmann, Troy Percival and Grant Balfour.

Here's the Box score .

In other news, Ben Zobrist had the cast taken off his thumb a week a head of schedule and might not miss the season opener after all.

Scott Kazmir will continue to take it easy, especially after watching Brian Anderson's career end last week with an elbow injury. From Raysbaseball.com:

"It kind of freaked me out a little bit, to be honest with you," Kazmir said. "You see him come in and the next thing you know he's talking about, 'Oh, I ripped my whatever' and what not. Then I'm like, maybe I should take a little more time.

"I see that going on. I'm thinking, 'Oh, man, I don't want to be in that boat.' And, plus, I've got the time no just to make sure that everything is strong and I'm ready to go."

Kazmir talked to Anderson after Anderson received the diagnosis, but he didn't want to talk to him too much.

"I didn't want to get too many images in my head about what was going on," Kazmir said. "But yeah, I talked to him a little bit about it right when he came in afterwards."

Kazmir said he's all ears when receiving good advice, noting Anderson told him: "Dude, don't rush it at all. This is a perfect time to do that, Spring Training."

Longoria Homers, Shields Strong as Rays beat Twins 7-1

The Rays without Carl Crawford beat the Twins with Delmon Young. CC didn't make the trip, but Evan Longoria decided to bring the big stick with him to Fort Myers. Longoria homered off of Juan Rincon when he came in the game as a pinch hitter. Overall, Longoria was 1-2, raising his average to .389. Other 3B candidate Willy Aybar was 2-2 with 2 RBI. Joel Guzman was 0-4 playing LF and 3B.

The "Rocco Roster Spot Race" candidates also played today. Eric Hinske was 1-3 with an RBI playing 1B. Justin Ruggiano played RF going 0-4 . John Rodriguez continued his awful spring at the plate going 0-3. Rodriguez played CF and is batting 0.45 this spring. Dioner Navarro and Elliot "Tonka Truck" Johnson also added 2-Run homers of their own.

On the mound Co-Ace James Shields was strong with five shutout innings. Shields escaped a few jams, but only gave up four hits over five. Kurt Birkins and Scott Munter pitched in with scoreless innings. J.K. Ryu gave up a run on three hits in his inning of work. #1 overall pick David Price remained perfect, pitching a flawless ninth inning.

Tomorrow marks the most anticipated match up of the Spring as the Yankees come down to Al Lang Field. The Yankees are expected to keep Derek Jeter and A-Rod in Tampa. Elliot Johnson is not expected to play for the Rays. Andy Sonnanstine will make his first start for the Rays followed by: Brian Anderson, Gary Glover, Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler.

Evan Longoria Part II

Just a follow up on my earlier Evan Longoria post. Longoria spoke to the media today after working out at the Naimoli Complex. Longoria is one of 30 plus early Rays to camp. Longoria sounds pretty confident about his chances:

"I'm feeling pretty good coming into the spring so I was just hoping that they would let me play and ... let them make the decision after the spring,''

"I couldn't come in thinking I wasn't going to get the job,'' Longoria said. "All I can do is stay positive, have a good spring and put the pressure on them to make a decision.''

I love his attitude, especially the last line about putting pressure on the team to make a decision.

Now batting for the Rays...# 3 Evan Longoria?

As reported by the St. Petersburg Times, as well as other local media outlets, Rays stud 3B prospect Evan Longoria's fate will not be decided before spring training. Instead the Rays are going to let Longoria battle it out with the other candidates: Willy Aybar, Joel Guzman and Erik Hinske. Rays manager Joe Maddon hinted that Longoria won't make the team on stats alone, but also how he handles himself through the course of Spring Training. Here is a Maddon quote from the Times:

>"For me, personally, it's the entire thing. There's no one area. He could come in and hit .500 and that might not make him make the team,'' Maddon said. "It's just going to be how we're seeing it progress, how we feel the whole thing is coming together, a lot of different things.

"I've got to see it on the field. I've not really been on the field with this guy. I love him. I've seen him in the fall league and I've had conversations, we've gone out to dinner. He's a major-leaguer, there's no question. When is the right time to make that happen, that's what we've got to figure out.''

I personally have my doubts about Evan getting a fair chance. Couldi t be just a smoke screen so the team doesn't come off as trying to delay his free agent & arbitration clocks? Two important dates to remember are April and June 15th and I'm not talking taxes. If Longoria is brought up after April 15th that pushes back his free agency eligiblilty a year. If the Rays wait until after June 15th his arbitration clock is stalled by a year. The fact that Maddon said he could hit .500 this spring and not make the team is pretty ridiculous. If he hit's .500 this spring and the team says he's not ready, you have to believe he never really had a chance anyway.

In his latest Sportsnation Chat, Jim Callis was asked about Longoria's chances to open the season with the club. Here is what Callis had to say:

Mike (San Diego): What are the odds that Longoria actually starts the season at third for the Rays?

Jim Callis: (2:25 PM ET ) I'd be surprised if he doesn't.


Keith Law also weighs in on the subject on Baseball Think Factory

OK, then perhaps I am getting too far into semantics, but that seventh season of control is not related to arbitration. There are two separate "clocks," so to speak:

1. Arbitration. The relevant questions here are whether the player will become a super-two (finishing a season with, roughly speaking, at least 2 years 130 days of service, but under 3 years) and when he will pass the 3-year threshold.

2. Free agency. The only question here is when he'll pass the six-year service mark, or, more specifically, which offseason will he enter with 6+ years of service?

For a player like Longoria, who will probably never return to the minors once he arrives in the majors (a la Gordon, Braun, Tulowitzki, Pedroia this year), these are easy things to figure out. To push back #2 by a year, wait two weeks into the season to call him up. To avoid super-two status, wait until about June 15th. I have no problem with the former, but the latter strikes me as a waste of everyone's time when the player is ready.

He's only had 104 AAA ABs, so I wouldn't think 2 months would hurt him.

But would it help him? It's a long-term asset management question. Two and a half months in the big leagues is, what, 200-250 PA? I have always taken it as a given that reps in the big leagues are a developmental positive for any player who's not completely overmatched - if someone can show me I'm wrong, I am absolutely open to changing my mind, but I don't know of a counterargument. Those 200-250 PA represent a significant amount of development time.

Full Squad workouts start in a week and I can't wait to see how this unfolds.